Key quote:
Biden’s defiance against calls for him to leave the presidential campaign after last month’s debate have only worsened his chances in November, Cook Editor-in-Chief Amy Walter wrote.
“Biden was losing pre-debate. Now, he’s losing by a bit more,” she said, adding that the possibility Biden leaves the race at this point is “remote.”
Citing postdebate polling, Cook announced it will move Minnesota, New Hampshire and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District from “Likely Democratic” to “Lean Democratic.” The group also moved Nevada, Arizona and Georgia from “Tossup” to “Lean Republican.”
There are people here that seem to actively WANT you to not vote against Trump. They know what’s at stake. And they know they can’t come here and try to pump anyone up about another four years with Trump. They’re aware of the demographic here on lemmy.
So they do the next best thing-
Attack his competition.
They did it in 2016, and again in 2020. Now they’re trying to seal the deal. They are not here in good faith. They are here to disrupt an election. Don’t let them.
Vote like lives depend on it. Because while yours may be safe- many won’t be.
It’s okay guys because his vibe from crowd sizes overrides aggregate Grade-A polling. And if he loses, well, at least he did his goodest.
The goodest.
Nevada, Arizona and Georgia have been on the “R” side for quite some time now.
I’m not currently seeing a path where Biden can win. Last time it all came down to New Mexico.
This time? Michigan is the only bright spot.
Arizona - Trump +3 to +7
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/arizona/Nevada - Trump +3 to +6
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/nevada/New Mexico - Biden +1 to +2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/new-mexico/Georgia - Trump +1 to +5
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/georgia/Pennsylvania - Trump +3 to +6
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/Michigan - Biden +5 to +6
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/michigan/Wisconsin - Biden +2 to +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/Minnesota - Biden +1 to +2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/minnesota/North Carolina - Trump +2 to +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/north-carolina/Here’s what it looks mapped out:
Biden CANNOT LOSE either Pennsylvania or Michigan. He HAS to carry both to block a Trump win.
And how accurate has 538 been lately? Didn’t they have Clinton winning in 2016?
538 gave Trump about a 30% chance of winning in 2016, while a lot of other poll aggregators were giving him single digit chances.
Biden is unpopular and losing. He was unpopular and losing before the debate and he’s still unpopular and losing. He barely beat an impeached Trump that oversaw almost a million Covid deaths and a wrecked economy in 2020, and that was when he could still string two coherent sentences together.
Why are so many liberals determined to bury their heads in the sand about this? The Democratic Party is casually coasting towards catastrophe.
Imagine being downvoted for posting polls lol. I hate to invoke Reddit, but for all the (very legitimate!) criticism people had of a The Donald and other heavily censored and astroturfed conservative communities, internet liberals created the exact same echo chambers for themselves that suddenly burst after the debate. I guess they have no idea for to handle that they’ve been lied to about Biden and the state of the election, and all they can do is downvote the truth?
This poll came out an hour ago. Maps not up to date yet.
This is so dumb- let’s elect Hitler’s biggest fan cause the other guy is slightly not as good as I’d like.
ITs not about what I like or dont like.
Biden isn’t winning this race. He is and will continue to lose to Trump.
If you dont want Trump, you must replace Biden.
Sure, put Bernie up, I’ll vote for him again.
Why do you insist on these insane projections?
Harris is fine. Fucking Newsom is fine. Fucking ANYONE who is able to get through a fucking sentence where they remember how the sentence started is fine. It would also be great if they didn’t advocate for the dropping bombs on brown babies so we could win back MI/ MN/ and WI, but at this point, Biden has an effectively 0% chance of winning this thing.
If you advocate for him, or are trying to prevent a conversation that is critical of him, YOU are a Trump supporter.
I’m not advocating for anyone other than not trump- but I am concerned that putting someone up that no one knows much about is gonna cause people to just not vote out of frustration/apathy/ignorance, and then what happens?
That hand wringing attitude has left us with a incompetent candidate who is absolutely losing this race.
Unfortunately, that only goes a couple of ways:
- Biden stays in and loses.
- Biden drops out for Kamala, who loses, because nobody likes her.
- The DNC replaces both of them, and that candidate loses because the voters believe they are owed a choice.
The only way I see a “D” win is for Joe to die in office, Kamala picks up the reins and gets a massive sympathy vote.
I mean, you and others where we’re advocating that Biden was our only chance of beating Trump, and you in particular worked to silence voices trying to inform people that Biden was not winning this election.
So you shouldn’t be surprised that I weight your opinion on what “will” happen politically to effectively 0.
Sadly, we won’t know what we had until it’s gone.
