Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?
projects.fivethirtyeight.com
538’s 2024 presidential election forecast model showing Democrat Kamala Harris’s and Republican Donald Trump’s chances of winning.

For the first time since 538 published our presidential election forecast for Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, Trump has taken the lead (if a very small one) over Harris. As of 3 p.m. Eastern on Oct. 18, our model gives Trump a 52-in-100 chance of winning the majority of Electoral College votes. The model gives Harris a 48-in-100 chance.

  • Lauchs@lemmy.world
    14·
    17 days ago

    All they do is predict the future.

    Here’s 538 going over the 2020 predictions (in a historically difficult polling year):

    Even in a year when the polls were mediocre to poor, our forecasts largely identified the right outcomes. They correctly identified the winners of the presidency (Joe Biden), the U.S. Senate (Democrats, after the Georgia runoffs) and the U.S. House (Democrats, although by a narrower-than-expected margin). They were also largely accurate in identifying the winners in individual states and races, identifying the outcome correctly in 48 of 50 presidential states (we also missed the 2nd Congressional District in Maine), 32 of 35 Senate races1 and 417 of 435 House races.

    • AmbiguousProps@lemmy.todayEnglish
      3·
      17 days ago

      They sure didn’t get 2016 right, which is what I referenced and what caused distrust. Just because they got 2020 right doesn’t mean they’ll get 2024 correct. It’s meaningless and only serves to make people feel like they don’t have to turn out. They definitely don’t just “predict the future”.

      Also, I’m not sure if quoting the very pollsters that got 2016 wrong will make people trust them now. It’s certainly not working for me.

      • Lauchs@lemmy.world
        13·
        17 days ago

        Goodness gracious.

        In 2016, 538 argued trump had a 1/4 chance of winning. And the thing about 1/4 changes is that they happen every so often, about, oh. 1/4 times.

        And meanwhile, if you actually read what I quoted, you’ll note how astoundingly accurate they were in 2020.

        And if you or anyone else is dumb enough to see “trump has a 51% chance of winning” and that somehow makes you not want to vote, damn, how many tries does it take you to put your shoes on the correct feet? Three?

        • AmbiguousProps@lemmy.todayEnglish
          3·
          17 days ago

          And if you or anyone else is dumb enough to see “trump has a 51% chance of winning” and that somehow makes you not want to vote, damn, how many tries does it take you to put your shoes on the correct feet? Three?

          I already voted, so don’t attempt insinuate that I’m not voting. You do realize that most people do not vote, right? And that most people are indeed idiots when it comes to politics? It’s those people that will not turn out when it’s needed because they saw a pollster say their candidate was ahead.

          We’re in a country where a known racist conman was elected.

          • Lauchs@lemmy.world
            23·
            17 days ago

            You do realize that most people do not vote, right?

            Except that isn’t true. In 2020, 2/3rds of eligible voters voted. Which, if your math is rusty, is a healthy majority of people.

            And that most people are indeed idiots when it comes to politics? It’s those people that will not turn out when it’s needed because they saw a pollster say their candidate was ahead.

            I mean, if this is correct, polls showing trump ahead should depress Right votes which I presume we agree is a good thing. (Though, this seems counter to the whole narrative about Republican pollsters flooding the zone.)

            I dunno, it really seems like you have a lot of problems with polls that are simply misunderstanding, like not knowing how aggregation works, not understanding what a probabilistic prediction is or just ignoring reality (like the impressive number of accurate predictions in most cycles.)

            I think to dislike something, you should be moderately informed about it. Your attitude to polling feels a bit like right wing attitudes towards lgbtq stuff “I don’t get it, I don’t want to learn about it so I dislike it!”

            • AmbiguousProps@lemmy.todayEnglish
              4·
              17 days ago

              Your attitude to polling feels a bit like right wing attitudes towards lgbtq stuff “I don’t get it, I don’t want to learn about it so I dislike it!”

              And this is where I call it. You’re saying my (rightful) distrust of polling is comparable to straight up bigotry? They are not even close to the same thing, and honestly as a queer it’s pretty disgusting to see you bring up something that I’ve battled against my entire life all so you can feel like you’re the smartest one in the room.

              I now see that you don’t really give a shit, and just want desperately to be right. I don’t need to talk to you about this any more.