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Cake day: June 25th, 2023

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  • Largely in the same boat. Anime as a whole has… Issues. It’s gotten bad enough that I suspect it’s going to face the media equivalent of the 1980’s video game crash somewhat soon.

    But there’s some genuine diamonds hiding in all the shit, written by authors who clearly care about storytelling rather than imagining their own personal power fantasy.

    I recommend the “modern fantasy trifecta”: Frieren, Dungeon Meshi, and Witch Hat Atelier. All of them have beautiful animation and have surprisingly nuanced and philosophical stories. And best of all, no sexualization.


  • For context: Ross Scott made a video explaining the situation. The Commission has been meeting with lobbyists frequently and had been essentially stonewalling the initiative for some time now. This was the expected outcome.

    However, he still has the support of the European parliament, so they will seek to amend an existing law (which can be done through the Parliament), rather than create a new law (which must be done through the Commission). There is high confidence that this will happen, this path will just take longer





  • It seems that the lag period (pre-Steam Deck) is causing the exponential fit to not be that good. Can you try fitting only to data from the past 4 years to see if the fit is better?

    Edit: Was easy enough for me to do, and I had the software to do it, so I did it.

    Details:

    Fitted entire dataset with a non-linear regression (minimizing sum of squares), with the given model:

    Y = baseline + Y0 * exp(k*t)

    Fitted equation was determined to be Y=0.7717 + 0.04451 * exp(0.04677 * t)

    With this fit, doubling time is 14.82 months.

    R^2 is 0.8851

    95% CI:

    baseline = 0.6029-0.9093

    Y0 = 0.01744-0.1023

    k = 0.03749-0.05734

    Doubling time = 12.09-18.49

    Edit 2: if we do a bit of the statistical funny, we can plug the equation into Desmos and try to extrapolate:

    With this data, we can estimate that Linux usage will hit a solid 5% on Steam after ~97 months (most recent datapoint is month 91 in my dataset), which should correspond to ~November 2026. If we extrapolate farther into the future, we can estimate that Linux will hit 10% at ~114 months, which corresponds to ~March 2028


  • My biggest concern is not that fertility rate is low/population decline is happening, it’s that it’s happening way too quickly for society to be able to handle it.

    We’re talking like 4 old people per child (estimated number). Not only would it be a massive strain on the economy to have so many elderly people/retirees to take care of, older people will also have a highly disproportionate account of political power due to their relative abundance. If it’s already such a big deal that boomers were twisting the political landscape for their gain, I shudder to think what would happen at this larger and longer scale.

    All of this is going to be a breeding ground for misogyny and right-wing ideology when people start thinking that it’s [opposite gender]'s fault that they’re not living as well as they were promised by the previous generation. We’ve already seen it in South Korea, and we’re seeing it now with the rise of isolation and inceldom.

    Plus, without younger people to take up the mantle, many industries that we rely on will need to downsize, and a lot of institutional knowledge will be lost. Many roles that require a “master-to-apprentice” style of learning will be lost and will be unable to recover, even if the population started growing again.

    Fox News has the wrong take here, as it is wont to have. But we genuinely should be really concerned that birth rates across all developed countries are this low below replacement rate and are still dropping







  • Basically everything is more powerful than the steam deck. The steam deck wasn’t really designed to be powerful, moreso it’s meant to be the “reference model” for handhelds: cheapest, weakest, yet also most mainstream. My understanding is that the Z2 should be substantially more powerful than the steam deck, and though it should also use more battery than the steam deck, it also has a larger battery capacity to make up for that increased power draw. Price, on the other hand… Well, nothing can even get close to the sort of price that a steam deck offers



  • Depends on how you loosely you feel about “why”. Was battery life a consideration? Sure. But it wasn’t really the primary consideration. Valve’s current track record is that they are masters at making a product that’s surprisingly workable out of scrapyard parts that they got for cheap.

    Valve didn’t design the Steam Deck’s chip - AMD designed it for Microsoft initially before the deal fell through. Then AMD offered the chips to Valve for cheap to recoup the costs.

    Likewise, Valve didn’t intentionally choose the parts in the upcoming Steam Machine. Valve just bought AMD’s excess stock. That’s why the Steam Machine uses such an unusual and unbalanced CPU/GPU combo.

    I honestly think SD2 is going to use x86, not for any particular reason, but because AMD is most likely going to have excess stock that’s x86 at the time that Valve designs it




  • I think it really depends on your definition of what counts as year of Linux. Will Linux usage ever beat Windows or Mac? Of course not. But it can definitely get popular enough that companies have to think really hard about whether they need to support Linux or not. And meanwhile, Linux isn’t going to get popular overnight (or in a year, for that matter). So do you consider the year of the Linux to be the end of growth? Middle of growth? Or beginning of growth?

    For me, I think year of the Linux desktop already passed in 2021, with the launch of the steam deck (where I’m defining year of Linux to be the point where Linux usage picks up and will hopefully end at a point where companies have to take Linux seriously)