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Joined 2 years ago
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Cake day: June 11th, 2023

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  • Yeah, again this is just semantics, a 401k in British English is 100% a pension. A UK defined contribution “workplace pension” is just a tax sheltered retirement account until it is annuitized, which is common and sensible but not necessary. The annuity is technically a totally different product, offered by life insurance companies (who interestingly with reference to above conversation would typically hold very little equity exposure backing it). Brits also call the equivalent to the social security retirement benefit the “state pension”. It’s a catch all for assets you use in retirement. Whether that’s used to fund an investment drawdown product or a life annuity or just taken out and splurged on a Ferrari makes no difference.







  • Some of your examples of harmony involve fourth wall breaking, which is interesting because I had always thought of the harmony between game and story as about immersion You’re right though, being seen as a player for what you are trying to do is the essence of harmony. That is if you’re trying to immerse, being wrenched out of it is bad, but if you’re taking the piss, the world should take the piss right back. Hard for a game to do both, but I had vivid memories or baldurs gate 1+2 characters talking to their “omnipreseent authority figure” that walked that line perfectly.






  • Still confused why you continue to emphasise estimate when ADP is also an estimate.

    I already emphasised the difficulty of real time stats, revisions are not shocking, but perfectly normal. I don’t think anyone is that surprised (though we can agree that there are a lot of overconfident and less statistically literate professionals), the gulf between hard data and sentiment/alternative data (vibecession and so forth) was well covered and had to resolve one way or another.

    ADP was +104k in July, so by your previous logic we should expect upwards revisions in the BLS July number as the year goes on right?



  • What are you talking about? They’re both estimates extrapolated from samples. I think most statisticians would prefer stratified sampling over one company’s payrolls processing, but whatever. Maybe chuds would argue that ADP is so much more efficient/accurate because it’s outside of the “swamp” of govt, it’s certainly an independent data point. I mean I agree with you in that BLS is not reliable either. Real time economics is hard.

    If you honestly preferred ADP all along and will continue to espouse it’s superiority when it next contradicts your view rather than confirming it (as it will because data are noisy) then more power to you.