Russian President Vladimir Putin can choose not to hold presidential elections next year because he will “obviously” win re-election, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said late Sunday.
I think at this point he knows that he can do fuck all without any Russian uprising.
IMO we’re more likely to see Russia break into a pile of separate republics than a big unified uprising. Maybe that pile of republics gets unified by a new dictator or Putin, maybe not. As it is, the core Russian ethnic group is shrinking while several of the other ethnicities are growing within their respective regions.
Eventually the Russians won’t have enough young men to conscript and continue maintaining control of their already massive territory, which will lead to existing regional governments declaring independence while Russia proper will be able to do fuck all about it unless they wanna start nuking their neighbors.
Russia break into a pile of separate republic is practically impossible, as it will cause colossal pain for literally all states. It is much easier to negotiate with one dictator with a nuclear button than with twenty.
Look, I’m not arguing what I think makes sense for people to do, I’m thinking about how people in large groups tend to act, regardless of whether it’s logical. Competing for power is inevitable whenever a centralized system can’t maintain outright dominance.
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