Ukraine has recaptured some villages in the south and territory around the ruined city of Bakhmut in the east, but has not had a major breakthrough against heavily defended Russian lines.
I guess if you include the territory that was very briefly held when Russia was making a push into Kyev, that’s true, but the lines in the East have held pretty steady since the early days of the war.
Short of bringing US-style air superiority to play there, I can’t see that they’ll gain much in the near term.
I think the play needs to be a stalemate/slow advance until Putin dies. His successor will either accelerate or withdraw imo. Can’t bleed resources like that forever and remain in power, Putin is grandfathered in but the new guy won’t be. Unfortunately Putin could die tomorrow or in ten years. Hopefully it’s sooner than later.
Ukraine definitely has political stability and morale as good advantages. They’re also continually getting additional military support as time goes on.
True, Russia has run out of prisoners, Wagner is gone, Chechens are disengaging, Belarus is s clear “no”, and the rest of the population is unwilling and getting restless.
The Kremlin is too scared to even call it a war, let alone try widespread mobilization. They saw how Prigozhin waltz into Rostov-On-Don and act like a celebrity.
I guess if you include the territory that was very briefly held when Russia was making a push into Kyev, that’s true, but the lines in the East have held pretty steady since the early days of the war.
Short of bringing US-style air superiority to play there, I can’t see that they’ll gain much in the near term.
I think the play needs to be a stalemate/slow advance until Putin dies. His successor will either accelerate or withdraw imo. Can’t bleed resources like that forever and remain in power, Putin is grandfathered in but the new guy won’t be. Unfortunately Putin could die tomorrow or in ten years. Hopefully it’s sooner than later.
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Ukraine definitely has political stability and morale as good advantages. They’re also continually getting additional military support as time goes on.
Not sure there will be enough people left to fight…
True, Russia has run out of prisoners, Wagner is gone, Chechens are disengaging, Belarus is s clear “no”, and the rest of the population is unwilling and getting restless.
The Kremlin is too scared to even call it a war, let alone try widespread mobilization. They saw how Prigozhin waltz into Rostov-On-Don and act like a celebrity.
I meant Ukraine but yeah I think Russia also has personnel issues.
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Evidence what is embedded Russian “journalists” report, e.g. there is no rotation of troops at the frontline for example.
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