(sorry I’m two days late with the news, but I thought it was interesting)
Personally as a German. while disappointing at facevalue, i wouldn’t read too much into it in respect to any shifts in the commitment to supporting Ukraine (but i might also be wrong here).
To me this very much is an internal self-inflicted struggle about balancing budgets and we’ll only be able to tell whether it actually affected things in retrospect (if it’s even possible).
In the end maybe more purchases will be directed through EU funds (of which Germany pays a substantial share) or instead of direct aid things are financed through low interest rate loans (that later might even get forgiven). Or you have some other kind of schemes where aid indirectly goes towards Ukraine.
And who knows how the conflict will change, promting adjustments in deliveries. Like the recent airstrikes probably leading towards more air defense systems being delivered than originally anticipated (with a single Patriot system being worth as much as 1 billion if i understand it correctly)
I sincerely hope you are correct in this because this sort of funding cut, if it is what it sounds like and not your explanation, is absolutely the last thing Ukraine needs right now.
Well i aswell hope that this isn’t just my bias speaking :)
Unlike France or GB, which recently had elections substantially changing majorities, here in Germany it’s still the exact same people in charge since the start of this war. With the only major change being the defense minister, and that was for the better. So the people deciding here are the same that (based on this article) doubled this years support budget. And as far as i am aware there really hasn’t been any major event that would have shifted the sentiment in foreign politics from what we’ve experienced until now.
On the side of internal politics as mentioned it is basically a self-inflicted struggle to balance the budget and limit new debt. Because for some reason we chose to write that into our constitution, restraining our options. So everyone is fighting for their share and by the looks the winners are the usual: more money to secure pensions for old people and the automotive industry. While not only the budget for Ukraine is on the chopping block, but also other stuff like a reform of welfare for children or infrastructure projects for railroads.
Might sound bad, but it’s nothing really new and so far lack of funds hasn’t been an issue delaying German support. So i don’t expect it to be going forward either. We’ll just keep moving in lockstep with what others provide, slowly build out capacity and react to new developments. Which would be no change to how we’ve seem to have handled it so far, and not like “the slashing the budget by half” would imply.
And as mentioned above i am sure there are plenty of additional ways to support Ukraine that don’t hinge on the budget. Like telling Ukraine to direcly purchase through the manufacturers and giving security assurances for loans. Might be a worse deal on paper for Ukraine, but in the short/medium term wouldn’t make a practical difference. And things can get sorted later.
But regardless of how this plays out we won’t have any type of deadlock like the one delaying US aid until recently. And the largest party in the opposition is also in favor of supporting Ukraine, despite taking any opportunity to take shots at whatever the governing parties decide.
thanks for your input
I am a bit more pessimistic than you. The “social democrats” SPD made their EU campaign on claiming to be the party that brings peace in Europe. The “liberal” (aka neoliberal with some alt-right tendencies) FDP was annoyed to have to start helping Ukraine instead of Russia just succeeding with the invasion and more business to be made under a new status quo. The “green” party has turned to be the most staunch supporter of weapon deliveries and military investments now. However their entire foreign policy is focused around doing what the US says and does.
If Trump wins, Germany will be quick to let Ukraine fall to Russia. Another big issue are the state level elections in eastern German states, where either fascist AfD governments or polarized deadlocks are to be expected. The AfD is a big Putin fanclub.
Also looking at how Germany left Afghanistan backstabbing and sacrificing the people die that risked their lives helping you, is the go to way of German foreign politics now.
If they drop support now the Ukrainian meatgrinder is exhausted it’s going to be interesting how the media will spin it.
Everyone was been told Ukraine wouldn’t be abandoned no matter what.
Germany’s going to regret that if Putin decides he can start marching through Poland.
Part of me would like to see him try and march through Poland. It may be the quickest way to end Putin
Oh, well, I’m relieved now. Everyone knows that the U.S. has never made incorrect assessments, let alone intentionally incorrect ones.
You don’t need to be some geopolitical genius to know that this assessment is correct - Russia simply doesn’t have the economic and logistical power to engage in a wider European conflict with any prospect of success, and this was perfectly clear even before Russia invaded Ukraine and before everyone lost their minds to Putin-hysteria.
Good thing Russia isn’t making friends with China and India, who could collectively give them a ton of support, am I right?
There is a total of 0 chance that India would actively aid Russia in a war against NATO. Especially if Modi and Trump are the respective heads of state.
Good thing Russia isn’t making friends with China and India,
China has no friends - it’s like the US in that regards. And India even struggles to project power within it’s own borders, never mind outside it.
China could help Russia logistically, but Putin (and all of China’s other “allies” - and I use that term lightly) understand fully well that China’s “loyalty” can switch at any time - just ask Jonas Savimbi if you don’t believe me.
China is already helping Russia.
https://www.bbc.com/news/60571253
Modi just had a big state visit to Russia.
I don’t need to ask Jonas Savimbi, I’ve been reading current events.
China is already helping Russia.
As I’ve already said… China could help Russia logistically - but this help could disappear in a puff of hot air tomorrow. Again… China has no friends.
Modi just had a big state visit to Russia.
And this doesn’t mean much in any way whatsoever.
I don’t need to ask Jonas Savimbi, I’ve been reading current events.
Actual history will tell you a lot more than warmed-over propaganda.
All of that kompromat on German officials is paying off
Gotta have to pay for company cars somehow
