Did you think it was strange when tech bubble burst in 2001 ? And the housing market and San Jose, Tech capital of the world went up.
Soon to lose the r from propping.
You don’t believe in the quantum block chain 3D printed AI cloud future mining asteroids for the private Mars colony (yet with no life extension)?
Luddite.
Quantum was popular as “oh god, our cryptography will die, what are we going to do”. Now post-quantum cryptography exists and it doesn’t seem to be clear what else quantum computers are useful for, other than PR.
Blockchain was popular when the supply of cryptocurrencies was kinda small, now there’s too many of them. And also its actually useful applications require having offline power to make decisions. Go on, tell politicians in any country that you want electoral system exposed and blockchain-based to avoid falsifications. LOL. They are not stupid. If you have a safe electoral system, you can do with much more direct democracy. Except blockchain seems a bit of an overkill for it.
3D printing is still kinda cool, except it’s just one tool among others. It’s widely used to prototype combat drones and their ammunition. The future is here, you just don’t see it.
Cloud - well, bandwidths allowed for it and it’s good for companies, so they advertised it. Except even in the richest countries Internet connectivity is not a given, and at some point wow-effect is defeated by convenience. It’s just less convenient to use cloud stuff, except for things which don’t make sense without cloud stuff. Like temporary collaboration on a shared document.
“AI” - they’ve ran out of stupid things to do with computers, so they are now promising the ultimate stupid thing. They don’t want smart things, smart things are smart because they change the world, killing monopolies and oligopolies along the way.
Quantum computing has incredible value as a scientific tool, what are you talking about.
OK, sorry.
Well that’s a lot of words that I wasted time reading.
Too bad
No room-temperature superconductor fusion reactors, space-based solar, or private space mining? Luddite.
#1 is like tactical nuke tech available for all civilians, #2 would make sense if all the production line and consumers are in space too, #3 would make sense as part of the same.
Earth gravity well is a bitch. We live in it. Sending stuff up is expensive, sending stuff down is stupid when it’s needed up there, but without some critical complete piece of civilization to send up at once, you’ll have to send stuff up all the time.
It’s too expensive and the profits are transcendent, as in “ideological achievement and because we can”. Also they may eventually start sending nukes down.
Thus it all makes sense only when we can build and equip an autonomous colony to send at once. Self-reliant with the condition that they will get needed materials from wherever they are sent.
I suggest something with gravity though. Europa or Ganymede or Enceladus. Something like that.
Are you a Space Nutter?
It’s not going to happen. No one is going to move to space or send nukes down or mine asteroids.
Ever.
In practice my comment means that it’s far too early to think of space colonization.
Far too late as well. It will never happen.
I disagree. It just won’t be fancy. It has to be an enormous project with existential risks. And you have to really send many people at once with no return ticket. “At once” is important, you can’t ramp it up, that’s far more expensive. It has to be a mission very deeply planned in detail with plenty of failsafe paths, aimed at building a colony that can be maintained with Earth’s teaching resources, technologies and expertise, and locally produced and processed materials for everything. So - something like that won’t happen anytime soon, but at some point it will happen.
The technologies necessary have to be perfected first, computing should stop being the main tool for hype, and the societies should adapt culturally for computing and worldwide connectivity.
These take centuries. In those centuries we’ll be busy with plenty of things existential, like avoiding the planet turning into one big 70s Cambodia.
Are you a round earth nutter?
It’s not going to happen. No one is going to get past the edge of the world or sail the whole world or find new land.
Ever.
If you don’t see how that’s a completely dumb comparison, this is hopeless. I’m reality-based, you are not.
Sure, friend. You can see reality thousands of years into the future and know exactly what happens.
My bad.
It’s going to be great when the AI hype bubble crashes
I feel like literally everybody knew it was a bubble when it started expanding and everyone just kept pumping into it.
How many tech bubbles do we have to go through before we leave our lesson?
Never. Some people think the universe owes us Star Trek and are just waiting for something new to happen.
I get that people who sell AI-services wants to promote it. That part is obvious.
What I don’t get is how gullible the rest of society at large is. Take the norwegian digitalization minister, who says that 80% of the public sector shall use AI. Whatever that means.
Or building a gigantic fuckoff openai data centre, instead of new industry https://openai.com/nb-NO/index/introducing-stargate-norway/
Jared Diamond had a great take on this in “Collapse”. That there a countless examples of societies making awful decisions - because the decisionmakers are insulated from the consequences. On the contrary, they get short term gains.
We know that our current way of economic growth and consistent new “inventions” is destroying the basis of our life. We know that the only way to stop is to fundamentally redesign the social system, moving away from capitalism, growth economics and ever new gadgets.
But facing this is difficult. Facing this and winning elections with it is even more difficult. Instead claiming there is some wonder technology that will safe us all and putting the eggs in that basket is much easier. It will fail inevitably, but until then it is easier.
what lesson? it’s a ponzi scheme and whoever is the last holding the bag is the only one losing.
And that’s why it’s being done. Everyone hopes that they make it out at just the right time to make millions while the greater fools who join too late are left holding the bag.
Bubbles are great. For those who make it out in time. They suck fo everyone else including the taxpayer who might have to bail out companies and investors.
Always following the doctrine of privatizing profits and socializing losses.
its the NEW CRYPTO hype basically
Plus everyone else that pays taxes as they will have to continue to pay for unemployment insurance, food stamps, rent assistance, etc (not the CEOs and execs that caused it that’s for sure).
the ceos, C-SUITES and some people trying to get into CS field are the one that believe in it. i know a person who already has a degree, and sitll think its wise to pursue a GRAD degree in the field adjacent or directly with AI or close to it.
A grad course in AI/LLM/ML might actually be useful. Its where my old roommates learned about Googles Transformers and got into LLMs before the hype bubble in 2018.
Home might get ahead of the curve for the next over inflated hype bubble and then proceed to make unearned garbage loads of money and have learned something other than how to put ChatGPT in a new wrapper.
When this puppy pops it’s gonna splatter all of us with chunky bits.
Everyone knows a bubble is a firm foundation to build upon. Now that Trump is back in office and all our American factories are busy cranking out domestic products I can finally be excited about the future again!
I predict that in a year this bubble will be at least twice as big!
If the bubble is on top of sand it can support anything.
As someone who works with integrating AI- it’s failing badly.
At best, it’s good for transcription- at least until it hallucinates and adds things to your medical record that don’t exist. Which it does and when the providers don’t check for errors - which few do regularly- congrats- you now have a medical record of whatever it hallucinated today.
And they are no better than answering machines for customer service. Sure, they can answer basic questions, but so can the automated phone systems.
They can’t consistently do anything more complex without making errors- and most people are frankly too dumb or lazy to properly verify outputs. And that’s why this bubble is so huge.
It is going to pop, messily.
If you want to define “failing” as unable to do everything correctly, then sure, I’d concur.
However, if you want to define “failing” as replacing people in their jobs, I’d disagree. It’s doing that, even though it’s not meeting the criteria to pass the first test.
And they are no better than answering machines for customer service. Sure, they can answer basic questions, but so can the automated phone systems.
This is what drives nuts the most about it. We had so many incredibly efficient, purpose-built tools using the same technologies (machine learning and neural networks) and we threw them away in favor of wildly inefficient, general-purpose LLMs that can’t do a single thing right. All because of marketing hype convincing billionaires they won’t need to pay people anymore.
This 1 million%.
The fact that coding is a big corner of the use cases means that the tech sector is essentially high on their own supply.
Summarizing and aggregating data alone isn’t a substitute for the smoke and mirrors of confidence that is a consulting firm. It just makes the ones that can lean on branding able to charge more hours for the same output, and add “integrating AI” another bucket of vomit to fling.
and most people are frankly too dumb or lazy to properly verify outputs.
This is my main argument. I need to check the output for correctness anyways. Might as well do it in the first place then.
Honestly I mostly use it as a jumping off point for my code or to help me sound more coherent when writing emails.
People are happy to accept the wrong answer without even checking lol
This is exactly why I love duckduckgo’s AI results built in to search. It appears when it is relevant (and yes you can nuke it from orbit so it never ever appears) and it always gives citations (2 websites) so I can go check if it is right or not. Sometimes it works wonders when regular search results are not relevant. Sometimes it fails hard. I can distinguish one from the other because I can always check the sources.
I tried having it identify an unknown integrated circuit. It hallucinated a chip. It kept giving me non-existent datasheets and 404 links to digikey/mouser/etc.
insurance companies, oh no, insurance companies !!! AArrrggghhh !!!
Well, from this description it’s still usable for things too complex to just do Monte-Carlo, but with possible verification of results. May even be efficient. But that seems narrow.
BTW, even ethical automated combat drones. I know that one word there seems out of place, but if we have an “AI” for target\trajectory\action suggestion, but something more complex\expensive for verification, ultimately with a human in charge, then it’s possible to both increase efficiency of combat machines and not increase the chances of civilian casualties and friendly fire (when somebody is at least trying to not have those).
it’s possible to both increase efficiency of combat machines and not increase the chances of civilian casualties and friendly fire (when somebody is at least trying to not have those).
But how does this work help next quarter’s profits?
If each unplanned death not result of operator’s mistake would lead to confiscation of one month’s profit (not margin), then I’d think it would help very much.
As someone who is actually an AI tool developer (I just use existing models) - it’s absolutely NOT failing.
Lemmy is ironically incredibly tech illiterate.
It can be working and good and still be a bubble - you know that right? A lot of AI is overvalued but to say it’s “failing badly” is absurd and really helps absolutely no one.
Lemmy is ironically incredibly tech illiterate
I disagree with all these self hosting Linux running passionate open source advocates, so they must be technology illiterate.
According to whom? No one’s running their instance here. I’m a software dev with over 20 years of foss experience and imo lemmy’s user base is somewhat illiterate bunch of contrarians when it comes to popular tech discussions.
We’re clearly not going to agree here without objective data so unless you’re willing to provide that have a good day, bye.
No one’s running their instance here.
speak for yourself
SSSSIIIIIIIGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHH…
Looks like I’ll have to prepare for yet another once-in-a-lifetime economic collapse.
How many does this make now, 6? 7? I lost track after Covid broke my understanding of time and space.
Covid really fucked everything up. My sense of time and recent-ish history went to shit.
If I was China, I would be thrilled to hear that the west are building data centres for LLMs, sucking power from the grid, and using all their attention and money on AI, rather than building better universities and industry. Just sit back and enjoy, while I can get ahead in these areas.
never interrupt your enemy while he is making a big mistake
They’ve been ahead for the past 2 decades. Government is robbing us blind because it only serves multinational corporations or foreign governments. It does not serve the people.
They have a demographic pit in front of them which they themselves created with “1 child policy”.
Also CCP too doesn’t exactly serve the people. It’s a hierarchy of (possibly benevolent) bureaucrats.
I never said they were ahead on social issues. They aren’t and have never been. Their infrastructure shits on ours. Hell look at their healthcare system.
So is it smart to short on the ai bubble ? 👉👈
The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
Yup. If you have money you can AFFORD TO BURN, go ahead and short to your heart’s content. Otherwise, stay clear and hedge your bets.
The question is when, not if. But it’s an expensive question to guess the “when” wrong. I believe the famous idiom is: the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
Best of luck!
Not only the tech bubble is doing that.
It’s also the tech bubble ow and the pyramide scheme of the US housing sector will cause more financial issues as well and so is the whole creditcard system
Open models are going to kick the stool out. Hopefully.
GLM 4.5 is already #2 on lm arena, above Grok and ChatGPT, and runnable on homelab rigs, yet just 32B active (which is mad). Extrapolate that a bit, and it’s just a race to the zero-cost bottom. None of this is sustainable.
I did not understand half of what you’ve written. But what do I need to get this running on my home PC?
I am referencing this: https://z.ai/blog/glm-4.5
The full GLM? Basically a 3090 or 4090 and a budget EPYC CPU. Or maybe 2 GPUs on a threadripper system.
GLM Air? Now this would work on a 16GB+ VRAM desktop, just slap in 96GB+ (maybe 64GB?) of fast RAM. Or the recent Framework desktop, or any mini PC/laptop with the 128GB Ryzen 395 config, or a 128GB+ Mac.
You’d download the weights, quantize yourself if needed, and run them in ik_llama.cpp (which should get support imminently).
https://github.com/ikawrakow/ik_llama.cpp/
But these are…not lightweight models. If you don’t want a homelab, there are better ones that will fit on more typical hardware configs.
You can probably just use ollama and import the model.
It’s going to be slow as molasses on ollama. It needs a better runtime, and GLM 4.5 probably isn’t supported at this moment anyway.
I’m running Qwen 3B and it is seldom useful
It’s too small.
IDK what your platform is, but have you tried Qwen3 A3B? Or smallthinker 21B?
https://huggingface.co/PowerInfer/SmallThinker-21BA3B-Instruct
The speed should be somewhat similar.
Qwen3 8B sorry, Idiot spelling. I use it to talk about problems when I have no internet or maxed out on Claude. I can rarely trust it with anything reasoning related, it’s faster and easier to do most things myself.
Yeah, 7B models are just not quite there.
There are tons of places to get free access to bigger models. I’d suggest Jamba, Kimi, Deepseek Chat, and Google AI Studio, and the new GLM chat app: https://chat.z.ai/
And depending on your hardware, you can probably run better MoEs at the speed of 8Bs. Qwen3 30B is so much smarter its not even funny, and faster on CPU.
I didn’t have the US becoming a banana republic on my bingo card tbf
why not
Yeah ten years seems like plenty of notice
Ooowee, they are setting up the US for a major bust aren’t they. I guess all the wealthy people will just have to buy up everything when it becomes dirt cheap. Sucks to have to own everything I guess.
